Rating Likelihood description
The potential for problems to occur and lead to assessed consequences
A Almost certain Very high, may occur at

least several times per year

Probability over 0.8 A similar outcome has

arisen several times

per year in the same location,

operation or activity

B Likely High, may arise about once

per year

Probability 0.5–0.8 A similar outcome has

arisen several times per

year in this organization

C Possible Possible, may arise at least

once in a 1–10-year period

Probability 0.1–0.5 A similar outcome has

arisen at some time

previously in this


D Unlikely Not impossible, likely

to occur during the next

10 to 40 years

Probability 0.02–0.1 A similar outcome has

arisen at some time

previously in a similar


E Rare Very low, very unlikely

during the next 40 years

Probability less than 0,02 A similar outcome has

arisen in the world-wide

industry, but not in this




Ratings Impact
Financial Helth&


Business Interruption Reputation& Image Corporate& Objective
A Catastrophic Above $10M; not covered by insurance Fatality(ies) or permanent disability or ill-health Critical systems unavailable for more than a day (at a crucial time) Demand for government inquiry Disastrous impact
B Major $5M to $10M; not covered by insurance Single death &/or long-term illness or multiple serious injuries Critical systems unavailable for 1 day or a series of prolonged outages Adverse and extended national media coverage Major impact
C Moderate $2M to $5M; not covered by insurance Injury; Possible hospitalisation & numerous days lost Client dissatisfaction; Critical systems unavailable for less than 1 day Adverse capital city media coverage Significant impact
D Minor $300,000 to $2M; not covered by insuranc Minor injury; Medical treatment & some days lost Inconvenient; Critical systems unavailable for several hours Adverse local media coverage only Minor impact
E Insignificant Minimal financial loss; Less than $300,000 No or only minor personal injury; First Aid needed but no days lost Negligible; Critical systems unavailable for less than one hour Negligible impact Resolved in day-to-day management









Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
Likelihood E D C B A
A Almost certain Medium Medium High High Extreme
B Likely Medium Medium Medium High Extreme
C Possible Low Medium Medium High High
D Unlikely Low Low Medium Medium High
E Rare Low Low Medium Medium Medium



Rating Description Required Action
L Low Acceptable:
Unlikely to require specific application of resources; Manage by routine procedures.
Monitor and review
M Medium Acceptable:
Unlikely to cause much damage and/or threaten the efficiency and effectiveness of the program/activity.
Treatment plans to be developed and implemented by operational managers.
Manage by specific monitoring or response procedures.
H High Generally not acceptable:
Likely to cause some damage, disruption or breach of controls.
Senior management attention needed and management responsibility specified; Treatment plans to be developed and reported to Deans, Exec Director/PVC &/or Vice-Chancellor.
E Extreme Not acceptable:
Likely to threaten the survival or continued effective functioning of the program or the organisation, either financially or politically.
Immediate action required; Must be managed by senior management with a detailed treatment plan reported to Deans, Exec Director/PVC, Vice-Chancellor and Council